Unpacking the Wheat Test: How It Exposed Iran-Thesis Seams in Real-Time Data
Last time I walked through a heavy-lift test using DeepSeek V4 to analyze wheat futures. What I didn’t fully unpack was the more interesting finding buried in the output: when I pushed the model on why June wheat was worth holding through the noise, the seams started showing in the Iran thesis—and they showed up exactly where I expected them to hurt most. Let me explain what I mean. The Hormuz Problem Nobody Wants to Price The macro setup I’ve been working with for months goes roughly like this: geopolitical pressure on the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t just threaten oil. It ripples into fertilizer, specifically urea, which is largely produced via natural gas feedstock and routed through Gulf shipping lanes. Urea cost spikes hit grain production on a lag of roughly one to two growing seasons, depending on where you are in the planting calendar. ...